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Rheindorf Altach II vs Wolfurt — Regionalliga - West 2018

Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
CANC
22:00
Wolfurt
Wolfurt
5/22/2020Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - Eliteliga - 11CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rheindorf Altach II51%
×Draw21%
Wolfurt28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rheindorf Altach II
2.16
Wolfurt
1.57

Rheindorf Altach II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.75
Wolfurt
1.47

allows per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.67
Wolfurt
2.57

finishing

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par
Wolfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rheindorf Altach II ↓

Wolfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rheindorf Altach II or draw
72%
Rheindorf Altach II or Wolfurt
79%
Draw or Wolfurt
49%

Winning margin

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
30%
Wolfurt wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
88%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
63%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
36%
Wolfurt 1+ goals
79%
Wolfurt 2+ goals
46%
Wolfurt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
64%
Wolfurt (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rheindorf Altach II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Wolfurt away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.75 + Wolfurt defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.16

Wolfurt attack 1.47 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rheindorf Altach II scores more
51%
level
21%
Wolfurt scores more
28%

Rheindorf Altach II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rheindorf Altach II host Wolfurt

May 22, 2020: Rheindorf Altach II take on Wolfurt in Regionalliga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rheindorf Altach II host Wolfurt at CASHPOINT Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.