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Rheindorf Altach II vs SVG Reichenau — Regionalliga - West 2018

Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
SVG Reichenau
SVG Reichenau
10/27/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 13CASHPOINT Arena Nebenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Rheindorf Altach II44%
×Draw23%
SVG Reichenau33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rheindorf Altach II
1.80
SVG Reichenau
1.53

Rheindorf Altach II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.75
SVG Reichenau
1.39

allows per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.67
SVG Reichenau
1.85

finishing

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par
SVG Reichenau+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rheindorf Altach II ↓

SVG Reichenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rheindorf Altach II or draw
67%
Rheindorf Altach II or SVG Reichenau
77%
Draw or SVG Reichenau
56%

Winning margin

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
24%
SVG Reichenau wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
83%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
54%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
27%
SVG Reichenau 1+ goals
78%
SVG Reichenau 2+ goals
45%
SVG Reichenau 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
57%
SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rheindorf Altach II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

SVG Reichenau away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.75 + SVG Reichenau defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

SVG Reichenau attack 1.39 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rheindorf Altach II scores more
44%
level
23%
SVG Reichenau scores more
33%

Rheindorf Altach II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rheindorf Altach II vs SVG Reichenau

SVG Reichenau beat Rheindorf Altach II 3-2 in Regionalliga - West on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena Nebenplatz 1 in Altach.