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Rheindorf Altach II vs Langenegg — Regionalliga - West 2018

Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Langenegg
Langenegg
7/29/2018Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 1CASHPOINT Arena Kunstrasen (Altach)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rheindorf Altach II56%
×Draw20%
Langenegg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rheindorf Altach II
2.40
Langenegg
1.56

Rheindorf Altach II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 24 away

creates per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.75
Langenegg
1.46

allows per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.67
Langenegg
3.04

finishing

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par
Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rheindorf Altach II ↓

Langenegg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Rheindorf Altach II or draw
75%
Rheindorf Altach II or Langenegg
80%
Draw or Langenegg
44%

Winning margin

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
35%
Langenegg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
91%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
69%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
42%
Langenegg 1+ goals
79%
Langenegg 2+ goals
46%
Langenegg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
69%
Langenegg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rheindorf Altach II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.75 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.40

Langenegg attack 1.46 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rheindorf Altach II scores more
56%
level
20%
Langenegg scores more
25%

Rheindorf Altach II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Rheindorf Altach II 0–2 Langenegg

Langenegg beat Rheindorf Altach II 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena Kunstrasen (Altach).