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Langenegg vs Rheindorf Altach II — Regionalliga - West 2018

Langenegg
Langenegg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
8/14/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 4Sportplatz Fc Langenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Langenegg36%
×Draw22%
Rheindorf Altach II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenegg
1.67
Rheindorf Altach II
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 82 away

creates per match

Langenegg
1.42
Rheindorf Altach II
1.41

allows per match

Langenegg
2.21
Rheindorf Altach II
1.91

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par
Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

Rheindorf Altach II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw
58%
Langenegg or Rheindorf Altach II
78%
Draw or Rheindorf Altach II
64%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+
18%
Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals
81%
Langenegg 2+ goals
50%
Langenegg 3+ goals
23%
Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
84%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
54%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)
46%
Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

Rheindorf Altach II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.91 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.41 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Langenegg scores more
36%
level
22%
Rheindorf Altach II scores more
42%

Rheindorf Altach II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langenegg vs Rheindorf Altach II

Rheindorf Altach II beat Langenegg 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg in Langenegg.