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Rheindorf Altach II vs Fussach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
FT
5 – 2
Fussach
Fussach
8/21/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 8CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rheindorf Altach II70%
×Draw15%
Fussach15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rheindorf Altach II
3.00
Fussach
1.36

Rheindorf Altach II creates 121% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 47 away

creates per match

Rheindorf Altach II
3.88
Fussach
1.47

allows per match

Rheindorf Altach II
1.25
Fussach
2.13

finishing

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par
Fussach+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rheindorf Altach II ↓

Fussach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Rheindorf Altach II or draw
85%
Rheindorf Altach II or Fussach
85%
Draw or Fussach
30%

Winning margin

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
50%
Fussach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
95%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
79%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
56%
Fussach 1+ goals
74%
Fussach 2+ goals
39%
Fussach 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
82%
Fussach (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rheindorf Altach II at home — creates 3.88, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Fussach away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rheindorf Altach II attack 3.88 + Fussach defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 3.00

Fussach attack 1.47 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rheindorf Altach II scores more
70%
level
15%
Fussach scores more
15%

Rheindorf Altach II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Rheindorf Altach II 5–2 Fussach

Rheindorf Altach II beat Fussach 5-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena in Altach.