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RFK Novi Sad vs Železničar Pančevo — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
5/20/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 6Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad38%
×Draw27%
Železničar Pančevo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.28
Železničar Pančevo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Železničar Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Železničar Pančevo
1.23

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
65%
RFK Novi Sad or Železničar Pančevo
73%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
62%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
17%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
72%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
37%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
14%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
71%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
35%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
52%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.13 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
38%
level
27%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
35%

RFK Novi Sad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Železničar Pančevo

RFK Novi Sad beat Železničar Pančevo 3-2 in Prva Liga on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.