RFK Novi Sad 4–2 Naftagas: Result & Stats

RFK Novi Sad

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Naftagas

4/19/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad58%

×Draw21%

Naftagas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RFK Novi SadExpected goals in this matchNaftagas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.17

RFK Novi Sad

2.10

Naftagas

1.17

RFK Novi Sad creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

2.80

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad

2.80

Naftagas

1.33

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad

1.00

Naftagas

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Naftagas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Naftagas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw

79%

RFK Novi Sad or Naftagas

79%

Draw or Naftagas

42%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

36%

Naftagas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

88%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

62%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

35%

Naftagas 1+ goals

69%

Naftagas 2+ goals

33%

Naftagas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

74%

Naftagas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Naftagas attack 1.33 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more

58%

level

21%

Naftagas scores more

21%

RFK Novi Sad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff