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RFK Novi Sad vs Macva — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Macva
Macva
10/22/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 13Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad41%
×Draw28%
Macva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.25
Macva
1.04

RFK Novi Sad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Macva
0.75

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Macva
1.18

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Macva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
69%
RFK Novi Sad or Macva
72%
Draw or Macva
59%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
18%
Macva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
71%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
36%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
13%
Macva 1+ goals
65%
Macva 2+ goals
28%
Macva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
57%
Macva (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Macva away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Macva defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Macva attack 0.75 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
41%
level
28%
Macva scores more
31%

RFK Novi Sad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: RFK Novi Sad 1–0 Macva

RFK Novi Sad beat Macva 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.