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RFK Novi Sad vs Kikinda — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Kikinda
Kikinda
5/3/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad68%
×Draw18%
Kikinda14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
2.35
Kikinda
0.97

RFK Novi Sad creates 142% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
2.80
Kikinda
0.95

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Kikinda
1.90

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Kikinda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Kikinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
86%
RFK Novi Sad or Kikinda
82%
Draw or Kikinda
32%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
45%
Kikinda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
90%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
68%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
41%
Kikinda 1+ goals
62%
Kikinda 2+ goals
25%
Kikinda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
83%
Kikinda (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Kikinda away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.90 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Kikinda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.35

Kikinda attack 0.95 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
68%
level
18%
Kikinda scores more
14%

RFK Novi Sad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: RFK Novi Sad 3–3 Kikinda

RFK Novi Sad and Kikinda drew 3-3 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion na Detelinari in Novi Sad.