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RFK Novi Sad vs Kabel Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
0 – 1
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
9/14/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad63%
×Draw20%
Kabel Novi Sad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
2.08
Kabel Novi Sad
0.97

RFK Novi Sad creates 114% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
2.80
Kabel Novi Sad
0.93

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Kabel Novi Sad
1.36

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
83%
RFK Novi Sad or Kabel Novi Sad
80%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
37%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
39%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
87%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
61%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
34%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
62%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
25%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
79%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.93 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
63%
level
20%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
17%

RFK Novi Sad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Kabel Novi Sad

Kabel Novi Sad beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Detelinari in Novi Sad.