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RFK Novi Sad vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Dubočica
Dubočica
5/19/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 6Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad45%
×Draw27%
Dubočica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.42
Dubočica
1.06

RFK Novi Sad creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
72%
RFK Novi Sad or Dubočica
73%
Draw or Dubočica
55%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
22%
Dubočica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
76%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
41%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
17%
Dubočica 1+ goals
65%
Dubočica 2+ goals
29%
Dubočica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
62%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dubočica attack 0.79 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
45%
level
27%
Dubočica scores more
28%

RFK Novi Sad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Dubočica

Dubočica beat RFK Novi Sad 3-2 in Prva Liga on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.