RFK Novi Sad 1–3 Dinamo Pančevo: Result & Stats

RFK Novi Sad

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Pančevo

8/17/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad63%

×Draw20%

Dinamo Pančevo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RFK Novi SadExpected goals in this matchDinamo Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.06

RFK Novi Sad

2.20

Dinamo Pančevo

1.06

RFK Novi Sad creates 108% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

2.80

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad

2.80

Dinamo Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad

1.00

Dinamo Pančevo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw

83%

RFK Novi Sad or Dinamo Pančevo

80%

Draw or Dinamo Pančevo

37%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

40%

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

89%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

64%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

37%

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

78%

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more

63%

level

20%

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

17%

RFK Novi Sad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff