RFC de Liege U21 2–2 Westerlo U21: Result & Stats

RFC de Liege U21

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Westerlo U21

Unknown 77', 65'

Unknown 59', 56'

12/5/2024

League #518 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RFC de Liege U2117%

×Draw15%

Westerlo U2168%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RFC de Liege U21Expected goals in this matchWesterlo U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

3.27

RFC de Liege U21

1.64

Westerlo U21

3.27

Westerlo U21 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

3.20

3.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

RFC de Liege U21

1.67

Westerlo U21

3.20

allows per match

RFC de Liege U21

3.33

Westerlo U21

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RFC de Liege U21+0.00on par

Westerlo U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFC de Liege U21 ↓

Westerlo U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

RFC de Liege U21 or draw

32%

RFC de Liege U21 or Westerlo U21

85%

Draw or Westerlo U21

83%

Winning margin

RFC de Liege U21 wins by 2+

7%

Westerlo U21 wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

RFC de Liege U21 1+ goals

81%

RFC de Liege U21 2+ goals

49%

RFC de Liege U21 3+ goals

23%

Westerlo U21 1+ goals

96%

Westerlo U21 2+ goals

83%

Westerlo U21 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

RFC de Liege U21 (draw refunded)

20%

Westerlo U21 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFC de Liege U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Westerlo U21 away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFC de Liege U21 attack 1.67 + Westerlo U21 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Westerlo U21 attack 3.20 + RFC de Liege U21 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RFC de Liege U21 scores more

17%

level

15%

Westerlo U21 scores more

68%

Westerlo U21 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Westerlo U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

59'

65'

77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff