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Rēzekne FA vs LBF FK Daugava — Cup 2020

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
LBF FK Daugava
LBF FK Daugava
P. Poznaks 58', 4'
D. Zukovs 50'
I. Puchov 37'
A. Kozlovskis 63'
6/10/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundOC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rēzekne FA26%
×Draw16%
LBF FK Daugava57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rēzekne FA
2.65
LBF FK Daugava
3.83

LBF FK Daugava creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rēzekne FA
2.29
LBF FK Daugava
5.67

allows per match

Rēzekne FA
2.00
LBF FK Daugava
3.00

finishing

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par
LBF FK Daugava+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rēzekne FA ↓

LBF FK Daugava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–23%
1–34%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

Rēzekne FA or draw
43%
Rēzekne FA or LBF FK Daugava
84%
Draw or LBF FK Daugava
74%

Winning margin

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
14%
LBF FK Daugava wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
93%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
74%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
48%
LBF FK Daugava 1+ goals
98%
LBF FK Daugava 2+ goals
88%
LBF FK Daugava 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
31%
LBF FK Daugava (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
89%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rēzekne FA at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

LBF FK Daugava away — creates 5.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rēzekne FA attack 2.29 + LBF FK Daugava defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

LBF FK Daugava attack 5.67 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rēzekne FA scores more
26%
level
16%
LBF FK Daugava scores more
57%

LBF FK Daugava at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LBF FK Daugava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
P. Poznaks
37'
I. Puchov
50'
D. Zukovs
58'
P. Poznaks
63'
A. Kozlovskis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rēzekne FA vs LBF FK Daugava

Rēzekne FA beat LBF FK Daugava 4-1 in Cup on June 10, 2023.

Goals: P. Poznaks (4', 58'), I. Puchov (37'), D. Zukovs (50'), A. Kozlovskis (63').

The match was played at OC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums in Rēzekne.