Rēzekne FA 5–0 Cēsis: Result & Stats | Cup

Rēzekne FA

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cēsis

6/2/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundOC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rēzekne FA72%

×Draw15%

Cēsis14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rēzekne FAExpected goals in this matchCēsis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.23

1.42

Rēzekne FA

3.23

Cēsis

1.42

Rēzekne FA creates 127% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.29

creates per match

0.83

2.00

allows per match

4.17

creates per match

Rēzekne FA

2.29

Cēsis

0.83

allows per match

Rēzekne FA

2.00

Cēsis

4.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Cēsis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rēzekne FA ↓

Cēsis →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Rēzekne FA or draw

86%

Rēzekne FA or Cēsis

85%

Draw or Cēsis

28%

Winning margin

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+

52%

Cēsis wins by 2+

Team goals

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals

96%

Rēzekne FA 2+ goals

82%

Rēzekne FA 3+ goals

61%

Cēsis 1+ goals

76%

Cēsis 2+ goals

41%

Cēsis 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)

84%

Cēsis (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rēzekne FA at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Cēsis away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rēzekne FA attack 2.29 + Cēsis defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.23

Cēsis attack 0.83 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rēzekne FA scores more

72%

level

15%

Cēsis scores more

14%

Rēzekne FA at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rēzekne FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff