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Reynir vs Fjardabyggd — 2. Deild 2018

Reynir
Reynir
FT
5 – 3
Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
9/11/20212. Deild2. Deild · Round 21BLUE-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Reynir49%
×Draw23%
Fjardabyggd28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reynir
1.82
Fjardabyggd
1.31

Reynir creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

creates per match

Reynir
1.45
Fjardabyggd
1.00

allows per match

Reynir
1.61
Fjardabyggd
2.19

finishing

Reynir+0.00on par
Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reynir ↓

Fjardabyggd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Reynir or draw
72%
Reynir or Fjardabyggd
77%
Draw or Fjardabyggd
51%

Winning margin

Reynir wins by 2+
27%
Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Reynir 1+ goals
84%
Reynir 2+ goals
54%
Reynir 3+ goals
27%
Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
73%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
38%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reynir (draw refunded)
64%
Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reynir at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reynir attack 1.45 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + Reynir defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reynir scores more
49%
level
23%
Fjardabyggd scores more
28%

Reynir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Reynir 5–3 Fjardabyggd

Reynir beat Fjardabyggd 5-3 in 2. Deild on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at BLUE-völlurinn in Sandgerði.