Reyady Abaseya 1–2 Tadamon Sour: Result & Stats

Reyady Abaseya

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tadamon Sour

Khoder Hallak 56'

Guilherme 90+1', 90'

9/20/2024

Premier League · Round 1Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Reyady Abaseya39%

×Draw29%

Tadamon Sour33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reyady AbaseyaExpected goals in this matchTadamon Sour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.07

Reyady Abaseya

1.20

Tadamon Sour

1.07

Reyady Abaseya creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

0.83

creates per match

0.89

1.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Reyady Abaseya

0.83

Tadamon Sour

0.89

allows per match

Reyady Abaseya

1.25

Tadamon Sour

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reyady Abaseya+0.00on par

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reyady Abaseya ↓

Tadamon Sour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Reyady Abaseya or draw

67%

Reyady Abaseya or Tadamon Sour

71%

Draw or Tadamon Sour

61%

Winning margin

Reyady Abaseya wins by 2+

17%

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reyady Abaseya 1+ goals

70%

Reyady Abaseya 2+ goals

34%

Reyady Abaseya 3+ goals

12%

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals

66%

Tadamon Sour 2+ goals

29%

Tadamon Sour 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Reyady Abaseya (draw refunded)

55%

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reyady Abaseya at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reyady Abaseya attack 0.83 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Reyady Abaseya defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reyady Abaseya scores more

39%

level

29%

Tadamon Sour scores more

33%

Reyady Abaseya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reyady Abaseya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Khoder Hallak

90'

Guilherme

90+1'

Guilherme

Reyady

Tadamon

⚽2

⚽

Manager: Mohammad Zoher

Manager: Hasan Hasson