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Reyady Abaseya vs Bourj — Premier League 2025

Reyady Abaseya
Reyady Abaseya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
Unknown 43'
6/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 12Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Reyady Abaseya37%
×Draw30%
Bourj34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reyady Abaseya
1.10
Bourj
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 57 away

creates per match

Reyady Abaseya
1.13
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Reyady Abaseya
1.08
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Reyady Abaseya+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reyady Abaseya ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Reyady Abaseya or draw
66%
Reyady Abaseya or Bourj
70%
Draw or Bourj
63%

Winning margin

Reyady Abaseya wins by 2+
15%
Bourj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reyady Abaseya 1+ goals
67%
Reyady Abaseya 2+ goals
30%
Reyady Abaseya 3+ goals
10%
Bourj 1+ goals
65%
Bourj 2+ goals
28%
Bourj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Reyady Abaseya (draw refunded)
52%
Bourj (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reyady Abaseya at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reyady Abaseya attack 1.13 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bourj attack 1.02 + Reyady Abaseya defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reyady Abaseya scores more
37%
level
30%
Bourj scores more
34%

Reyady Abaseya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Reyady Abaseya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Reyady
Bourj
Mohammad Zoher
Manager: Mohammad Zoher
Foad Hijazi
Manager: Foad Hijazi

Match Recap: Reyady Abaseya vs Bourj

Reyady Abaseya and Bourj drew 0-0 in Premier League on June 19, 2025.

Goals: ? (43').

The match was played at Al Safa SC Stadium in Bayrūt (Beirut).