Revilla 0–2 Solares: Result & Stats

Revilla

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Solares

10/21/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Revilla41%

×Draw25%

Solares34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RevillaExpected goals in this matchSolares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.34

Revilla

1.48

Solares

1.34

Revilla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 61 away

1.30

creates per match

1.02

1.67

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Revilla

1.30

Solares

1.02

allows per match

Revilla

1.67

Solares

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par

Solares+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Solares →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Revilla or draw

66%

Revilla or Solares

75%

Draw or Solares

59%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+

20%

Solares wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals

77%

Revilla 2+ goals

43%

Revilla 3+ goals

19%

Solares 1+ goals

74%

Solares 2+ goals

39%

Solares 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)

54%

Solares (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Solares away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Solares defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Solares attack 1.02 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Revilla scores more

41%

level

25%

Solares scores more

34%

Revilla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff