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Revilla vs Sámano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sámano
Sámano
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Revilla37%
×Draw26%
Sámano37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.38
Sámano
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 91 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Sámano
1.09

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Sámano
1.45

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Sámano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
63%
Revilla or Sámano
74%
Draw or Sámano
63%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
17%
Sámano wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
75%
Revilla 2+ goals
40%
Revilla 3+ goals
16%
Sámano 1+ goals
75%
Sámano 2+ goals
40%
Sámano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
50%
Sámano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sámano attack 1.09 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Revilla scores more
37%
level
26%
Sámano scores more
37%

Revilla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Revilla vs Sámano

Sámano beat Revilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.