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Revilla vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Revilla47%
×Draw25%
Rinconeda Polanco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.61
Rinconeda Polanco
1.20

Revilla creates 34% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
72%
Revilla or Rinconeda Polanco
75%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
53%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
24%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
80%
Revilla 2+ goals
48%
Revilla 3+ goals
22%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
70%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
34%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
62%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Revilla scores more
47%
level
25%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
28%

Revilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Revilla vs Rinconeda Polanco

Rinconeda Polanco beat Revilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.