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Revilla vs Noja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Noja
Noja
12/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Revilla49%
×Draw24%
Noja27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.73
Noja
1.23

Revilla creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Noja
0.78

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Noja
2.16

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Noja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Noja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
73%
Revilla or Noja
76%
Draw or Noja
51%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
26%
Noja wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
82%
Revilla 2+ goals
52%
Revilla 3+ goals
25%
Noja 1+ goals
71%
Noja 2+ goals
35%
Noja 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
64%
Noja (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Noja away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Noja defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Noja attack 0.78 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Revilla scores more
49%
level
24%
Noja scores more
27%

Revilla at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Revilla 2–1 Noja

Revilla beat Noja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.