Revilla 1–1 Montañas Pas: Result & Stats

Revilla

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montañas Pas

4/1/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Revilla64%

×Draw19%

Montañas Pas17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RevillaExpected goals in this matchMontañas Pas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.13

Revilla

2.35

Montañas Pas

1.13

Revilla creates 108% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

0.59

1.67

allows per match

3.41

creates per match

Revilla

1.30

Montañas Pas

0.59

allows per match

Revilla

1.67

Montañas Pas

3.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par

Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Montañas Pas →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Revilla or draw

83%

Revilla or Montañas Pas

81%

Draw or Montañas Pas

36%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+

42%

Montañas Pas wins by 2+

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals

90%

Revilla 2+ goals

68%

Revilla 3+ goals

41%

Montañas Pas 1+ goals

68%

Montañas Pas 2+ goals

31%

Montañas Pas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)

79%

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Montañas Pas away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Montañas Pas defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.35

Montañas Pas attack 0.59 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Revilla scores more

64%

level

19%

Montañas Pas scores more

17%

Revilla at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff