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Revilla vs Gama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gama
Gama
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Revilla45%
×Draw24%
Gama31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.67
Gama
1.33

Revilla creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Gama
1.00

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Gama
2.03

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
69%
Revilla or Gama
76%
Draw or Gama
55%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
24%
Gama wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
81%
Revilla 2+ goals
50%
Revilla 3+ goals
23%
Gama 1+ goals
74%
Gama 2+ goals
38%
Gama 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
60%
Gama (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Gama defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gama attack 1.00 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Revilla scores more
45%
level
24%
Gama scores more
31%

Revilla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Revilla vs Gama

Revilla beat Gama 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.