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Revilla vs Barreda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Barreda
Barreda
1/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Revilla44%
×Draw24%
Barreda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.60
Barreda
1.33

Revilla creates 20% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 61 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Barreda
1.00

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Barreda
1.90

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Barreda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Barreda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
68%
Revilla or Barreda
76%
Draw or Barreda
56%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
22%
Barreda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
80%
Revilla 2+ goals
47%
Revilla 3+ goals
22%
Barreda 1+ goals
74%
Barreda 2+ goals
38%
Barreda 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
58%
Barreda (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Barreda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Barreda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Barreda attack 1.00 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Revilla scores more
44%
level
24%
Barreda scores more
32%

Revilla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Revilla vs Barreda

Revilla beat Barreda 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.