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Revilla vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Revilla44%
×Draw25%
Atlético Mineros31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.59
Atlético Mineros
1.29

Revilla creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 34 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Atlético Mineros
0.91

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Atlético Mineros
1.88

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Atlético Mineros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
69%
Revilla or Atlético Mineros
75%
Draw or Atlético Mineros
56%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
80%
Revilla 2+ goals
47%
Revilla 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Revilla scores more
44%
level
25%
Atlético Mineros scores more
31%

Revilla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Revilla vs Atlético Mineros

Atlético Mineros beat Revilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.