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Reutlingen vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Reutlingen
Reutlingen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Villingen II
Villingen II
11/2/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 15Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Reutlingen68%
×Draw18%
Villingen II14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen
2.40
Villingen II
0.99

Reutlingen creates 142% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Reutlingen
1.68
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Reutlingen
1.39
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw
86%
Reutlingen or Villingen II
82%
Draw or Villingen II
32%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+
46%
Villingen II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals
91%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
69%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
42%
Villingen II 1+ goals
63%
Villingen II 2+ goals
26%
Villingen II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)
83%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.40

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Reutlingen scores more
68%
level
18%
Villingen II scores more
14%

Reutlingen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Reutlingen 2–1 Villingen II

Reutlingen beat Villingen II 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche in Reutlingen.