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Reutlingen vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Reutlingen
Reutlingen
FT
3 – 2
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
9/30/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 9Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Reutlingen50%
×Draw22%
Sandhausen II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen
1.92
Sandhausen II
1.36

Reutlingen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 6 away

creates per match

Reutlingen
1.68
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Reutlingen
1.39
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw
73%
Reutlingen or Sandhausen II
78%
Draw or Sandhausen II
50%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+
29%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals
85%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
57%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
30%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
74%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
39%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)
65%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reutlingen scores more
50%
level
22%
Sandhausen II scores more
27%

Reutlingen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reutlingen vs Sandhausen II

Reutlingen beat Sandhausen II 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche in Reutlingen.