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Reutlingen vs Offenburger FV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Reutlingen
Reutlingen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
4/8/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reutlingen63%
×Draw19%
Offenburger FV18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen
2.35
Offenburger FV
1.17

Reutlingen creates 101% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Reutlingen
1.68
Offenburger FV
0.94

allows per match

Reutlingen
1.39
Offenburger FV
3.03

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par
Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Offenburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw
82%
Reutlingen or Offenburger FV
81%
Draw or Offenburger FV
37%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+
41%
Offenburger FV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals
90%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
68%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
41%
Offenburger FV 1+ goals
69%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
33%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)
78%
Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.35

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Reutlingen scores more
63%
level
19%
Offenburger FV scores more
18%

Reutlingen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reutlingen vs Offenburger FV

Reutlingen beat Offenburger FV 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche in Reutlingen.