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Reutlingen vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Reutlingen
Reutlingen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
4/11/2026Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Reutlingen46%
×Draw24%
Normannia Gmünd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen
1.71
Normannia Gmünd
1.36

Reutlingen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

Reutlingen
1.68
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

Reutlingen
1.39
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw
69%
Reutlingen or Normannia Gmünd
76%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
54%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+
24%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals
82%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
51%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
24%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
74%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
39%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)
60%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Reutlingen scores more
46%
level
24%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
31%

Reutlingen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Reutlingen 1–1 Normannia Gmünd

Reutlingen and Normannia Gmünd drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche in Reutlingen.