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Reutlingen vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Reutlingen
Reutlingen
CANC
13:30
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
4/24/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Reutlingen59%
×Draw20%
Ilshofen21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen
2.26
Ilshofen
1.29

Reutlingen creates 75% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

creates per match

Reutlingen
1.68
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

Reutlingen
1.39
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw
79%
Reutlingen or Ilshofen
80%
Draw or Ilshofen
41%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+
37%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals
89%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
66%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
39%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
72%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
37%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)
74%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.26

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Reutlingen scores more
59%
level
20%
Ilshofen scores more
21%

Reutlingen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reutlingen face Ilshofen (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Reutlingen hosting Ilshofen. Match starts April 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Reutlingen host Ilshofen at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.