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Reutlingen vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Reutlingen
Reutlingen
CANC
13:30
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
5/13/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 35Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Reutlingen52%
×Draw23%
Freiburger FC25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen
1.88
Freiburger FC
1.25

Reutlingen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Reutlingen
1.68
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Reutlingen
1.39
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw
75%
Reutlingen or Freiburger FC
77%
Draw or Freiburger FC
48%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+
29%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals
85%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
56%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
29%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
71%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
36%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)
67%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reutlingen scores more
52%
level
23%
Freiburger FC scores more
25%

Reutlingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Reutlingen host Freiburger FC

May 13, 2021: Reutlingen take on Freiburger FC in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Reutlingen host Freiburger FC at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.