Reutlingen 0–1 FC Rielasingen-Arlen: Result & Stats

Reutlingen

FT

0 – 1

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

10/2/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Reutlingen51%

×Draw22%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReutlingenExpected goals in this matchFC Rielasingen-Arlen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.32

Reutlingen

1.90

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.32

Reutlingen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.39

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Reutlingen

1.68

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.26

allows per match

Reutlingen

1.39

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw

73%

Reutlingen or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

78%

Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

49%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+

29%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals

85%

Reutlingen 2+ goals

56%

Reutlingen 3+ goals

29%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

73%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

38%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)

66%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reutlingen scores more

51%

level

22%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

27%

Reutlingen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff