Reutlingen U19 2–2 Sandhausen U19: Result & Stats

Reutlingen U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sandhausen U19

M. Schmalz 72'

E. Reichardt 5'

A. Belachemi 41'

Y. Outman 8'

2/23/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 4Kunstrasenplatz 1 Sport und Freizeitpark Markwasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reutlingen U1943%

×Draw21%

Sandhausen U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reutlingen U19Expected goals in this matchSandhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.92

Reutlingen U19

2.12

Sandhausen U19

1.92

Reutlingen U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 38 away

1.78

creates per match

1.55

2.28

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Reutlingen U19

1.78

Sandhausen U19

1.55

allows per match

Reutlingen U19

2.28

Sandhausen U19

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reutlingen U19+0.00on par

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen U19 ↓

Sandhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Reutlingen U19 or draw

64%

Reutlingen U19 or Sandhausen U19

79%

Draw or Sandhausen U19

57%

Winning margin

Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Reutlingen U19 1+ goals

88%

Reutlingen U19 2+ goals

62%

Reutlingen U19 3+ goals

35%

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals

85%

Sandhausen U19 2+ goals

57%

Sandhausen U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

Sandhausen U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.78 + Sandhausen U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.12

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.55 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reutlingen U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Sandhausen U19 scores more

36%

Reutlingen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reutlingen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

E. Reichardt

8'

Y. Outman

41'

A. Belachemi

56'

J. Waldmann← D. Villiers

63'

J. Demir← E. Maier

68'

D. Maraj← A. Belachemi

72'

J. Wally← M. Stauß

72'

M. Schmalz

81'

A. Üstün← A. Malaj

81'

K. Gegg← L. Gamer

84'

J. Quartey← E. Reichardt

Reutlingen

Sandhausen

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Reichardt

Maurer

Manager: M. Stingel

63'▲J. Demir←▼E. Maier

72'▲J. Wally←▼M. Stauß

84'▲J. Quartey←▼E. Reichardt

Reutlingen U19 substitutes

DemirWallyQuarteySeegerMärländer

Manager: I. Erceg

56'▲J. Waldmann←▼D. Villiers

68'▲D. Maraj←▼A. Belachemi

81'▲A. Üstün←▼A. Malaj

81'▲K. Gegg←▼L. Gamer

Sandhausen U19 substitutes

WaldmannMarajÜstünGeggSassoZimmerZulum