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Reutlingen U19 vs Ingolstadt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Reutlingen U19
Reutlingen U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ingolstadt U19
Ingolstadt U19
9/3/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reutlingen U1931%
×Draw21%
Ingolstadt U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen U19
1.75
Ingolstadt U19
2.21

Ingolstadt U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Reutlingen U19
1.78
Ingolstadt U19
2.13

allows per match

Reutlingen U19
2.28
Ingolstadt U19
1.71

finishing

Reutlingen U19+0.00on par
Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Reutlingen U19 or draw
52%
Reutlingen U19 or Ingolstadt U19
79%
Draw or Ingolstadt U19
69%

Winning margin

Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+
15%
Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Reutlingen U19 1+ goals
83%
Reutlingen U19 2+ goals
52%
Reutlingen U19 3+ goals
25%
Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals
89%
Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals
65%
Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.78 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.13 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Reutlingen U19 scores more
31%
level
21%
Ingolstadt U19 scores more
48%

Ingolstadt U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Reutlingen U19 1–3 Ingolstadt U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Reutlingen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche in Reutlingen.