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Reutlingen U19 vs Gonsenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Reutlingen U19
Reutlingen U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gonsenheim U19
Gonsenheim U19
2/9/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2Kunstrasenplatz 1 Sport und Freizeitpark Markwasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Reutlingen U1956%
×Draw18%
Gonsenheim U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen U19
2.98
Gonsenheim U19
2.05

Reutlingen U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Reutlingen U19
1.78
Gonsenheim U19
1.83

allows per match

Reutlingen U19
2.28
Gonsenheim U19
4.17

finishing

Reutlingen U19+0.00on par
Gonsenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen U19 ↓

Gonsenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Reutlingen U19 or draw
74%
Reutlingen U19 or Gonsenheim U19
82%
Draw or Gonsenheim U19
44%

Winning margin

Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+
37%
Gonsenheim U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reutlingen U19 1+ goals
95%
Reutlingen U19 2+ goals
79%
Reutlingen U19 3+ goals
56%
Gonsenheim U19 1+ goals
87%
Gonsenheim U19 2+ goals
61%
Gonsenheim U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Gonsenheim U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

Gonsenheim U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.78 + Gonsenheim U19 defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.98

Gonsenheim U19 attack 1.83 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Reutlingen U19 scores more
56%
level
18%
Gonsenheim U19 scores more
26%

Reutlingen U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Reutlingen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Reutlingen U19 2–2 Gonsenheim U19

Reutlingen U19 and Gonsenheim U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Sport und Freizeitpark Markwasen in Reutlingen.