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Reutlingen U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Reutlingen U19
Reutlingen U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Darmstadt 98 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
5/4/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reutlingen U1941%
×Draw21%
Darmstadt 98 U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen U19
2.02
Darmstadt 98 U19
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

creates per match

Reutlingen U19
1.78
Darmstadt 98 U19
1.56

allows per match

Reutlingen U19
2.28
Darmstadt 98 U19
2.25

finishing

Reutlingen U19+0.00on par
Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Reutlingen U19 or draw
62%
Reutlingen U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19
79%
Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19
59%

Winning margin

Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+
23%
Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Reutlingen U19 1+ goals
87%
Reutlingen U19 2+ goals
60%
Reutlingen U19 3+ goals
33%
Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals
85%
Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals
57%
Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.78 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reutlingen U19 scores more
41%
level
21%
Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more
38%

Reutlingen U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reutlingen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reutlingen U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 beat Reutlingen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kreuzeiche in Reutlingen.