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Reutlingen U19 vs Augsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Reutlingen U19
Reutlingen U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Augsburg U19
Augsburg U19
3/26/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Sport- und Freizeitpark Markwasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reutlingen U1938%
×Draw21%
Augsburg U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reutlingen U19
1.92
Augsburg U19
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 71 away

creates per match

Reutlingen U19
1.78
Augsburg U19
1.77

allows per match

Reutlingen U19
2.28
Augsburg U19
2.06

finishing

Reutlingen U19+0.00on par
Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Reutlingen U19 or draw
59%
Reutlingen U19 or Augsburg U19
79%
Draw or Augsburg U19
62%

Winning margin

Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+
20%
Augsburg U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Reutlingen U19 1+ goals
85%
Reutlingen U19 2+ goals
57%
Reutlingen U19 3+ goals
30%
Augsburg U19 1+ goals
87%
Augsburg U19 2+ goals
60%
Augsburg U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.06 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.78 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Augsburg U19 attack 1.77 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reutlingen U19 scores more
38%
level
21%
Augsburg U19 scores more
41%

Augsburg U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reutlingen U19 2 – 0 Augsburg U19

Reutlingen U19 beat Augsburg U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitpark Markwasen in Reutlingen.