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Reus vs Sants — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Reus
Reus
FT
0 – 3
Sants
Sants
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reus16%
×Draw22%
Sants62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reus
0.86
Sants
1.91

Sants creates 122% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 45 away

creates per match

Reus
0.00
Sants
0.82

allows per match

Reus
3.00
Sants
1.73

finishing

Reus+0.00on par
Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Sants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reus or draw
38%
Reus or Sants
78%
Draw or Sants
84%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+
5%
Sants wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals
58%
Reus 2+ goals
21%
Reus 3+ goals
6%
Sants 1+ goals
85%
Sants 2+ goals
57%
Sants 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)
21%
Sants (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.00 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Sants attack 0.82 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Reus scores more
16%
level
22%
Sants scores more
62%

Sants at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reus vs Sants

Sants beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.