Reus 2–1 Rayo Majadahonda: Result & Stats

Reus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

Juan Domínguez 86'

Catena 50'

Edgar Badía 48' (OG)

10/21/2018

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Reus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Reus34%

×Draw29%

Rayo Majadahonda37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReusExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.15

Reus

1.09

Rayo Majadahonda

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

0.38

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Reus

0.38

Rayo Majadahonda

1.10

allows per match

Reus

1.19

Rayo Majadahonda

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reus+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Reus or draw

63%

Reus or Rayo Majadahonda

71%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

66%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+

14%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals

66%

Reus 2+ goals

30%

Reus 3+ goals

10%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

68%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

32%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)

48%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.38 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.10 + Reus defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reus scores more

34%

level

29%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

37%

Rayo Majadahonda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Catena

Reus

8.0

Match Events

48'

Edgar BadíaOwn goal

50'

Catena↳ Luís Gustavo

60'

Fran Carbià← Alfred Planas

64'

Toni Martínez← E. Fernández

66'

Ernesto Galan

77'

Benito Ramírez← Verza

81'

Jesus Olmo

83'

Rubén Enri← Gonzalo

86'

Juan Domínguez

89'

Borja Herrera← Adrià Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReusRayo

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots15

7Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target1

3Off Target7

4Blocked7

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

383Total Passes561

295Accurate Passes466

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3