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Reus vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Reus
Reus
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Granada CF
Granada CF
10/7/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Reus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Reus26%
×Draw31%
Granada CF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reus
0.81
Granada CF
1.14

Granada CF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 84 away

creates per match

Reus
0.38
Granada CF
1.08

allows per match

Reus
1.19
Granada CF
1.24

finishing

Reus+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Reus or draw
57%
Reus or Granada CF
69%
Draw or Granada CF
74%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+
8%
Granada CF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals
56%
Reus 2+ goals
19%
Reus 3+ goals
5%
Granada CF 1+ goals
68%
Granada CF 2+ goals
32%
Granada CF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)
37%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.38 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.81

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Reus defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reus scores more
26%
level
31%
Granada CF scores more
43%

Granada CF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Reus 1–2 Granada CF

Granada CF beat Reus 2-1 in Segunda División on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Reus in Reus.