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Reus vs Gimnastic — Segunda División 2018

Reus
Reus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
9/23/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Municipal de Reus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Reus43%
×Draw32%
Gimnastic26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reus
1.09
Gimnastic
0.78

Reus creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Reus
0.38
Gimnastic
0.38

allows per match

Reus
1.19
Gimnastic
1.81

finishing

Reus+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Reus or draw
74%
Reus or Gimnastic
68%
Draw or Gimnastic
57%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+
17%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals
66%
Reus 2+ goals
30%
Reus 3+ goals
10%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
54%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
18%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)
62%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.38 + Gimnastic defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Gimnastic attack 0.38 + Reus defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reus scores more
43%
level
32%
Gimnastic scores more
26%

Reus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reus vs Gimnastic

Reus and Gimnastic drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Reus in Reus.