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Reus vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Reus
Reus
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Extremadura
Extremadura
11/17/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Reus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Reus27%
×Draw31%
Extremadura42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reus
0.84
Extremadura
1.13

Extremadura creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Reus
0.38
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Reus
1.19
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Reus+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Reus or draw
58%
Reus or Extremadura
69%
Draw or Extremadura
73%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+
9%
Extremadura wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals
57%
Reus 2+ goals
21%
Reus 3+ goals
5%
Extremadura 1+ goals
68%
Extremadura 2+ goals
31%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)
39%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.38 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.84

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Reus defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reus scores more
27%
level
31%
Extremadura scores more
42%

Extremadura at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Reus 1–4 Extremadura

Extremadura beat Reus 4-1 in Segunda División on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Reus in Reus.