Reus 0–3 Cerdanyola del Vallès: Result & Stats

Reus

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Cerdanyola del Vallès

4/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 35Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reus12%

×Draw20%

Cerdanyola del Vallès68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReusExpected goals in this matchCerdanyola del Vallès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

2.04

Reus

0.72

Cerdanyola del Vallès

2.04

Cerdanyola del Vallès creates 183% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

0.00

creates per match

1.08

3.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Reus

0.00

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.08

allows per match

Reus

3.00

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reus+0.00on par

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Reus or draw

32%

Reus or Cerdanyola del Vallès

80%

Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès

88%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals

51%

Reus 2+ goals

16%

Reus 3+ goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

87%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

60%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)

15%

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.00 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Reus scores more

12%

level

20%

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

68%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reus vs Cerdanyola del Vallès

Cerdanyola del Vallès beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reus vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Reus vs Cerdanyola del Vallès