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Retrô vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Retrô
Retrô
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
4/13/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 1Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Retrô33%
×Draw34%
Tombense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Retrô
0.86
Tombense
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 59 away

creates per match

Retrô
0.44
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

Retrô
1.00
Tombense
1.29

finishing

Retrô+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Retrô ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Retrô or draw
66%
Retrô or Tombense
66%
Draw or Tombense
67%

Winning margin

Retrô wins by 2+
11%
Tombense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Retrô 1+ goals
58%
Retrô 2+ goals
21%
Retrô 3+ goals
6%
Tombense 1+ goals
59%
Tombense 2+ goals
22%
Tombense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Retrô (draw refunded)
49%
Tombense (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Retrô at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Retrô attack 0.44 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.86

Tombense attack 0.75 + Retrô defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Retrô scores more
33%
level
34%
Tombense scores more
34%

Tombense at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Retrô vs Tombense

Retrô and Tombense drew 0-0 in Serie C on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Pernambuco.