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Respublika FA vs Qiziriq — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Qiziriq
Qiziriq
S. Djumadillayev 90'
A. Aliev 45', 36', 12'
A. Amirkulov 70' (pen), 61'
6/4/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA59%
×Draw24%
Qiziriq17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
1.70
Qiziriq
0.80

Respublika FA creates 113% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
Qiziriq
0.86

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
Qiziriq
2.14

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
Qiziriq+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

Qiziriq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
83%
Respublika FA or Qiziriq
76%
Draw or Qiziriq
41%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
33%
Qiziriq wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
82%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
51%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
24%
Qiziriq 1+ goals
55%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
19%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
77%
Qiziriq (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Qiziriq away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + Qiziriq defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.70

Qiziriq attack 0.86 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Respublika FA scores more
59%
level
24%
Qiziriq scores more
17%

Respublika FA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. Aliev
36'
A. Aliev
45'
A. Aliev
61'
A. Amirkulov
70'
A. AmirkulovPenalty
90'
S. Djumadillayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Respublika FA vs Qiziriq

Respublika FA beat Qiziriq 4-2 in Pro League A on June 4, 2026.

Goals: A. Aliev (12', 36', 45'), A. Amirkulov (61', 70' pen), S. Djumadillayev (90').