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Respublika FA vs Pakhtakor II — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
Preview
13:00
Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
10/19/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 23
55%
Respublika FA
model favours
55%25%20%
1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA55%
×Draw25%
Pakhtakor II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
1.63
Pakhtakor II
0.88

Respublika FA creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
Pakhtakor II
1.00

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
Pakhtakor II
2.00

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

Pakhtakor II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
80%
Respublika FA or Pakhtakor II
75%
Draw or Pakhtakor II
45%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
30%
Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
80%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
48%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
22%
Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
59%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
22%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
73%
Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Respublika FA scores more
55%
level
25%
Pakhtakor II scores more
20%

Respublika FA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FA
WWLDD
II
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Respublika FA vs Pakhtakor II — Match Preview

Respublika FA face Pakhtakor II on October 19, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.