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Pakhtakor II vs Respublika FA — Pro League A 2026

Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Respublika FA
Respublika FA
A. Aliev 90'
A. Hojimurodov 84'
D. Makhmudjonov 76'
6/8/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pakhtakor II13%
×Draw22%
Respublika FA65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor II
0.67
Respublika FA
1.83

Respublika FA creates 173% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor II
0.17
Respublika FA
1.17

allows per match

Pakhtakor II
2.50
Respublika FA
1.17

finishing

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par
Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor II ↓

Respublika FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–214%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pakhtakor II or draw
35%
Pakhtakor II or Respublika FA
78%
Draw or Respublika FA
87%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
3%
Respublika FA wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
49%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
15%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
3%
Respublika FA 1+ goals
84%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
54%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
17%
Respublika FA (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor II at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor II attack 0.17 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.67

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pakhtakor II scores more
13%
level
22%
Respublika FA scores more
65%

Respublika FA at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
D. Makhmudjonov
84'
A. Hojimurodov
90'
A. Aliev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Pakhtakor II 0–3 Respublika FA

Respublika FA beat Pakhtakor II 3-0 in Pro League A on June 8, 2026.

Goals: D. Makhmudjonov (76'), A. Hojimurodov (84'), A. Aliev (90').