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Respublika FA vs Metalourg — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
Preview
13:00
Metalourg
Metalourg
8/15/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 15
38%
Respublika FA
model favours
38%26%36%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA38%
×Draw26%
Metalourg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
1.32
Metalourg
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
Metalourg
1.80

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
Metalourg
1.40

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

Metalourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
64%
Respublika FA or Metalourg
74%
Draw or Metalourg
62%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
17%
Metalourg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
73%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
38%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
15%
Metalourg 1+ goals
72%
Metalourg 2+ goals
36%
Metalourg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
52%
Metalourg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + Metalourg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Metalourg attack 1.80 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Respublika FA scores more
38%
level
26%
Metalourg scores more
36%

Respublika FA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FA
WWLDD
Metalourg
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Respublika FA vs Metalourg — Match Preview

Respublika FA face Metalourg on August 15, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.