Metalourg 1–1 Respublika FA: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Respublika FA

A. Akhmedov 44' (pen)

A. Soliev 28'

4/10/2026

Pro League A · Round 2Metallurg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Metalourg61%

×Draw22%

Respublika FA18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchRespublika FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.92

Metalourg

1.92

Respublika FA

0.92

Metalourg creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

1.17

0.67

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Metalourg

2.67

Respublika FA

1.17

allows per match

Metalourg

0.67

Respublika FA

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Respublika FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

82%

Metalourg or Respublika FA

78%

Draw or Respublika FA

39%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

36%

Respublika FA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

85%

Metalourg 2+ goals

57%

Metalourg 3+ goals

30%

Respublika FA 1+ goals

60%

Respublika FA 2+ goals

23%

Respublika FA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

78%

Respublika FA (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 2.67 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + Metalourg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Metalourg scores more

61%

level

22%

Respublika FA scores more

18%

Metalourg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Soliev

44'

A. AkhmedovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff